Misinformation and Public Health Messaging in the Early Stages of the Mpox Outbreak: Mapping the Twitter Narrative With Deep Learning.

BACKGROUND: Shortly after the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, an outbreak of mpox introduced another critical public health emergency. Like the COVID-19 pandemic, the mpox outbreak was characterized by a rising prevalence of public health misinformation on social media, through which many US adults receive and engage with news. Digital misinformation continues to challenge the efforts of public health officials in providing accurate and timely information to the public. We examine the evolving topic distributions of social media narratives during the mpox outbreak to map the tension between rapidly diffusing misinformation and public health communication. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to observe topical themes occurring in a large-scale collection of tweets about mpox using deep learning. METHODS: We leveraged a data set comprised of all mpox-related tweets that were posted between May 7, 2022, and July 23, 2022. We then applied Sentence Bidirectional Encoder Representations From Transformers (S-BERT) to the content of each tweet to generate a representation of its content in high-dimensional vector space, where semantically similar tweets will be located closely together. We projected the set of tweet embeddings to a 2D map by applying principal component analysis and Uniform Manifold Approximation Projection (UMAP). Finally, we group these data points into 7 topical clusters using k-means clustering and analyze each cluster to determine its dominant topics. We analyze the prevalence of each cluster over time to evaluate longitudinal thematic changes. RESULTS: Our deep-learning pipeline revealed 7 distinct clusters of content: (1) cynicism, (2) exasperation, (3) COVID-19, (4) men who have sex with men, (5) case reports, (6) vaccination, and (7) World Health Organization (WHO). Clusters that largely communicated erroneous or irrelevant information began earlier and grew faster, reaching a wider audience than later communications by official instances and health officials. CONCLUSIONS: Within a few weeks of the first reported mpox cases, an avalanche of mostly false, misleading, irrelevant, or damaging information started to circulate on social media. Official institutions, including the WHO, acted promptly, providing case reports and accurate information within weeks, but were overshadowed by rapidly spreading social media chatter. Our results point to the need for real-time monitoring of social media content to optimize responses to public health emergencies.

Financial constraint and perceptions of COVID-19.

In early March 2020, two crises emerged: the COVID-19 public health crisis and a corresponding economic crisis resulting from business closures and skyrocketing job losses. While the link between socioeconomic status and infectious disease is well-documented, the psychological relationships among economic considerations, such as financial constraint and economic anxiety, and health considerations, such as perceptions of disease spread and preventative actions, is not well understood. Despite past research illustrating the strong link between financial fragility and a wide range of behaviors, surprisingly little research has examined the psychological relationship between the economic crisis and beliefs and behaviors related to the co-occurring health crisis. We show that financial constraint predicts people's beliefs about both their personal risk of infection and the national spread of the virus as well as their social distancing behavior. In addition, we compare the predictive utility of financial constraint to two other commonly studied factors: political partisanship and local disease severity. We also show that negative affect partially mediates the relationship between financial constraint and COVID-19 beliefs and social distancing behaviors. These results suggest the economic crisis created by COVID-19 spilled over into people's beliefs about the health crisis and their behaviors.

The Role of Risk Preferences in Responses to Messaging About COVID-19 Vaccine Take-Up

Development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine is widely considered as one of the best paths to ending the current health crisis. While the ability to distribute a vaccine in the short-term remains uncertain, the availability of a vaccine alone will not be sufficient to stop disease spread. Instead, policy makers will need to overcome the additional hurdle of rapid widespread adoption. In a large-scale nationally representative survey (N = 34,200), the current work identifies monetary risk preferences as a correlate of take-up of an anticipated COVID-19 vaccine. A complementary experiment (N = 1,003) leverages this insight to create effective messaging encouraging vaccine take-up. Individual differences in risk preferences moderate responses to messaging that provides benchmarks for vaccine efficacy (by comparing it to the flu vaccine), while messaging that describes pro-social benefits of vaccination (specifically herd immunity) speeds vaccine take-up irrespective of risk preferences. Findings suggest that policy makers should consider risk preferences when targeting vaccine-related communications.